BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Steller's Jay In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaGeneralists

Steller's Jay in Sierra Nevada has edged down: down 21% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-21%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Steller's Jay in Sierra Nevada. See the full index history below.

Steller's Jay In Sierra Nevada Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Steller's Jay in Sierra Nevada is projected to rise about 32% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 9.1–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+32%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.1–2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Steller's Jay in Sierra Nevada is projected to rise about 32% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 9.1–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025179.625
2026179.525
2027179.325
2028179.225
2029179.125

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Steller's Jay in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Forest HillCALIFORNIA362022
Hat CreekCALIFORNIA302018
Last ChanceCALIFORNIA282019
Bass LakeCALIFORNIA272019
GeneseeCALIFORNIA272024
Greenhorn MtCALIFORNIA262008
Forest Hill 2CALIFORNIA252005
Cottage SpgsCALIFORNIA241975
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA232024
JohnsvilleCALIFORNIA222024
LakeshoreCALIFORNIA222024
WoodfordsCALIFORNIA202024
Butte MeadowCALIFORNIA202014
PlacervilleCALIFORNIA202024
StrawberryCALIFORNIA192019
DownievilleCALIFORNIA172024
Pine MountainCALIFORNIA172017
GoumazCALIFORNIA162011
RivertonCALIFORNIA142023
Tuolumne GroveCALIFORNIA132024
PaxtonCALIFORNIA132024
WestvilleCALIFORNIA122024
ChilcootCALIFORNIA122024
Tahoe NfCALIFORNIA111994
Meadow ValleyCALIFORNIA102024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.