BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Steller's Jay In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaForest birds

Steller's Jay in Sierra Nevada has declined: down 31% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-31%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Steller's Jay in Sierra Nevada. See the full index history below.

Steller's Jay In Sierra Nevada Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Steller's Jay in Sierra Nevada is projected to rise about 25% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 8.7–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.7–2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Steller's Jay in Sierra Nevada is projected to rise about 25% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 8.7–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026179.225
2027179.025
2028178.924
2029178.824
2030168.724

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Steller's Jay in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hat CreekCALIFORNIA302018
Last ChanceCALIFORNIA282019
Bass LakeCALIFORNIA272019
GeneseeCALIFORNIA272024
Greenhorn MtCALIFORNIA262008
Forest Hill 2CALIFORNIA252005
Cottage SpgsCALIFORNIA241975
JohnsvilleCALIFORNIA232025
Forest HillCALIFORNIA232025
LakeshoreCALIFORNIA222024
Meadow ValleyCALIFORNIA212025
Butte MeadowCALIFORNIA202014
Little TruckeeCALIFORNIA202025
LumberyardCALIFORNIA192025
StrawberryCALIFORNIA192019
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA172025
DownievilleCALIFORNIA172025
Pine MountainCALIFORNIA172017
GoumazCALIFORNIA162011
PaxtonCALIFORNIA152025
RivertonCALIFORNIA142025
WestvilleCALIFORNIA132025
PlacervilleCALIFORNIA122025
ChilcootCALIFORNIA122024
WoodfordsCALIFORNIA112025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.