BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Spotted Sandpiper In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsShorebirds

Spotted Sandpiper in Appalachian Mountains has collapsed: down 96% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-96%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
96Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Spotted Sandpiper has collapsed in Appalachian Mountains: down 96% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Spotted Sandpiper In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Spotted Sandpiper in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±773.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±773.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Spotted Sandpiper in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±773.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.07
20260.000.000.07
20270.000.000.07
20280.000.000.07
20290.000.000.07

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Spotted Sandpiper in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Peters MtPENNSYLVANIA61993
MartinsburgWEST-VIRGINIA61982
MidvaleNEW-JERSEY31974
LaurensNEW-YORK31976
SwainNEW-YORK31975
Warwick 2NEW-YORK32011
S BerneNEW-YORK21967
OneontaNEW-YORK21982
LisleNEW-YORK21983
CattaraugusNEW-YORK22005
Oxford 2NEW-YORK21990
New MarshfldOHIO21974
BeaverPENNSYLVANIA22021
Pine Gr MillPENNSYLVANIA21967
MifflintownPENNSYLVANIA21966
JeffersonPENNSYLVANIA21988
NewbernVIRGINIA21976
Smyer LakeALABAMA11973
FloydMARYLAND12010
SmithsburgMARYLAND11982
Kemah LakeNEW-JERSEY11969
BloomsburyNEW-JERSEY11996
Mt HopeNEW-YORK11970
DurhamNEW-YORK11972
MedusaNEW-YORK12008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.