BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Spotted Sandpiper In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionShorebirds

Spotted Sandpiper in Prairie Hardwood Transition has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-65%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
121Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Spotted Sandpiper has fallen sharply in Prairie Hardwood Transition: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Spotted Sandpiper In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Spotted Sandpiper in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 62% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-62%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Spotted Sandpiper in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 62% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.080.000.22
20260.080.000.22
20270.070.000.22
20280.070.000.21
20290.060.000.21

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Spotted Sandpiper in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chatfield 2MINNESOTA62017
HowardsvilleMICHIGAN52009
Rolling PrWISCONSIN42010
Maple RapidsMICHIGAN31991
KnappMINNESOTA32001
HudsonWISCONSIN32023
StratfordWISCONSIN32024
Beaver DamWISCONSIN32004
GreshamWISCONSIN32024
KnoxINDIANA22019
Big RapidsMICHIGAN21968
NashvilleMICHIGAN22009
GalesburgMICHIGAN22016
HoltMICHIGAN21987
PrattvilleMICHIGAN21997
CohoctahMICHIGAN22023
OsseoMINNESOTA21983
Le CenterMINNESOTA22023
Brook ParkMINNESOTA22005
New LondonMINNESOTA22012
NapoleonOHIO22024
KingswayOHIO22014
LimestoneOHIO22006
DresserWISCONSIN22018
New LisbonWISCONSIN22005

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.