BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Spotted Sandpiper In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesShorebirds

Spotted Sandpiper in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 501% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+501%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
96Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Spotted Sandpiper has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 501% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Spotted Sandpiper In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Spotted Sandpiper in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 0.47 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.19–0.53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.36Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.19–0.5395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Spotted Sandpiper in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 0.47 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.19–0.53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.340.170.51
20260.350.180.52
20270.350.180.52
20280.360.190.53
20290.360.190.53

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Spotted Sandpiper in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MaynardMINNESOTA121971
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA82024
TracyMINNESOTA62017
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA62024
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA52024
WestbyMONTANA42019
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA42023
HartlandMINNESOTA32007
NashNORTH-DAKOTA31985
BeltramiMINNESOTA22004
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA22003
SunburstMONTANA22006
MaltaMONTANA21991
WhitlashMONTANA22009
Ester LakeMONTANA22019
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA22024
BowesmontNORTH-DAKOTA21973
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA22009
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA22023
AbercrombieNORTH-DAKOTA22012
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA22023
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA22024
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA22014
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA22023
Abercrombie 2NORTH-DAKOTA22014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.