BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Spotted Sandpiper In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesShorebirds

Spotted Sandpiper in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 487% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+487%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
97Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Spotted Sandpiper has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 487% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Spotted Sandpiper In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Spotted Sandpiper in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.37 (95% range 0.20–0.53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.37Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.20–0.5395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Spotted Sandpiper in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.37 (95% range 0.20–0.53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.350.180.51
20270.350.190.52
20280.360.190.52
20290.360.200.53
20300.370.200.53

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Spotted Sandpiper in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MaynardMINNESOTA121971
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA52024
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA52025
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA52025
WestbyMONTANA42019
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA42023
HartlandMINNESOTA32007
OswegoMONTANA32025
NashNORTH-DAKOTA31985
BeltramiMINNESOTA22004
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA22003
TracyMINNESOTA22025
SunburstMONTANA22006
MaltaMONTANA21991
WhitlashMONTANA22009
Ester LakeMONTANA22019
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA22024
BowesmontNORTH-DAKOTA21973
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA22009
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA22023
AbercrombieNORTH-DAKOTA22012
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA22023
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA22024
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA22014
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA22023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.