BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Spotted Owl

StrigidaeBirds of preyStrix occidentalis

Spotted Owl has fallen sharply: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-64%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Spotted Owl

The Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis) is a North American member of the Owls (Strigidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the birds of prey.

Size
5–27.5 in long (13–70 cm) — a nocturnal raptor (typical for the family)
Habitat
Open country, woodlands, cliffs and wetlands, hunting from the air or a high perch.
Diet
Live prey — small mammals, birds, reptiles, fish and large insects (carrion for vultures).
Range
Recorded on 27 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 4 states, most concentrated in the Sierra Nevada.
Family
Strigidae · Birds of prey

Notable Spotted Owl TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Spotted Owl. See the full index history below.

Spotted Owl Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Spotted Owl is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.00). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Spotted Owl is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.00). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.000.000.00
20250.000.000.00
20260.000.000.00
20270.000.000.00
20280.000.000.00

Where the Spotted Owl Is Detected

BBS routes recording Spotted Owl, sized by most recent count.

Spotted Owl Population Trend by State

Spotted Owl population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Arizonainsufficient datan/a3
California-62%197517
Oregoninsufficient datan/a5
Washingtoninsufficient datan/a2

Spotted Owl Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Spotted Owl population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Sierra Nevada-82%19756

Spotted Owl Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it down about 64% since 1975.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.