BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Spotted Dove Population Trend in California

All statesGeneralists

Spotted Dove in California has collapsed: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-86%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Spotted Dove Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Spotted Dove has collapsed in California: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Spotted Dove Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Spotted Dove in California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2022, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2906.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2022TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2022 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±2906.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Spotted Dove in California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2022, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2906.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682022
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20180.030.000.33
20190.020.000.32
20200.010.000.31
20210.010.000.31
20220.000.000.30

Spotted Dove Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Spotted Dove in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Harbor Lake1619911973
Arvin420121984
Poway319801973
Santa Ynez220121969
El Toro219871973
Fallsvale219731973
S Catalina120172012
Foster Park119921968
Barstow119851972
Inyokern119771977
Moreno119861978
Cp. Pendleton119861986
Morro Bay120042004
Gravesboro119891989
Anza119791979

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.