BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sooty Grouse In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestGeneralists

Sooty Grouse in Northern Pacific Rainforest has risen sharply: up 72% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+72%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
81Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sooty Grouse has risen sharply in Northern Pacific Rainforest: up 72% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Sooty Grouse In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sooty Grouse in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.94 (95% range 0.49–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.94Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.49–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sooty Grouse in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.94 (95% range 0.49–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.890.451.3
20260.900.461.3
20270.910.471.4
20280.920.481.4
20290.940.491.4

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Sooty Grouse in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Zimovia StrtALASKA202024
HainesALASKA162024
Mitkof IsleALASKA112024
Kuiu IslandALASKA82010
Mt. AdamsWASHINGTON82023
SkagwayALASKA52024
TimberOREGON52017
CinderellaOREGON52024
CougarWASHINGTON52023
HyderALASKA42009
Wrangell (Short)ALASKA41984
Warner Mtn.OREGON42024
PackwoodWASHINGTON42011
Rio DellCALIFORNIA31973
KorbelCALIFORNIA31991
Cool CampOREGON32013
Myrtle GroveOREGON32015
Mt RainierWASHINGTON32021
ZaremboALASKA22014
Chichagof IsALASKA22024
Junction CtyCALIFORNIA21982
HiouchiCALIFORNIA22014
Friday RidgeCALIFORNIA22023
Pilot CreekCALIFORNIA21996
WedderburnOREGON22019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.