BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Song Sparrow In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsForest birds

Song Sparrow in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has surged: up 105% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+105%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Song Sparrow has surged in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: up 105% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Song Sparrow In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 25% by 2030 — from 0.64 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.80 (95% range 0.17–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.80Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±95%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 25% by 2030 — from 0.64 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.80 (95% range 0.17–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.790.151.4
20270.790.151.4
20280.800.161.4
20290.800.161.4
20300.800.171.4

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Song Sparrow in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NilandCALIFORNIA112025
OnyxCALIFORNIA72001
Red Rock 2ARIZONA52016
CoolidgeARIZONA41975
RivieraARIZONA42024
Cibola LakeARIZONA42019
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA42006
BrawleyCALIFORNIA42012
FlorenceARIZONA31988
DatelandARIZONA32016
Palo Verde 2ARIZONA32025
TecopaCALIFORNIA32018
Alamo RiverCALIFORNIA32018
LagunaARIZONA22023
ArabyARIZONA22022
Cutter 2ARIZONA22018
Palo VerdeCALIFORNIA22024
PearblossomCALIFORNIA22025
Palo VerdeARIZONA12013
Red RockARIZONA12014
Casa GrandeARIZONA12016
Cactus ForestARIZONA12025
Hope 2ARIZONA12018
Parker DamCALIFORNIA12007
GlamisCALIFORNIA12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.