BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Song Sparrow In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainGeneralists

Song Sparrow in Southeastern Coastal Plain has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-53%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Song Sparrow has fallen sharply in Southeastern Coastal Plain: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Song Sparrow In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 53% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-53%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 53% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.11
20260.030.000.11
20270.030.000.11
20280.030.000.10
20290.030.000.10

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Song Sparrow in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BackbayVIRGINIA121974
Lloyd XroadsNORTH-CAROLINA91992
HamletNORTH-CAROLINA81999
Minter TweedGEORGIA62006
PungoVIRGINIA62024
WorkmoreGEORGIA51981
SweetlipsTENNESSEE51997
St FlorianALABAMA42024
JamesvilleNORTH-CAROLINA42006
RoseboroNORTH-CAROLINA42003
TazewellGEORGIA31991
RoseNORTH-CAROLINA32003
RheasvilleNORTH-CAROLINA32017
HardeevilleSOUTH-CAROLINA31972
CornlandVIRGINIA32006
DeepstepGEORGIA22006
CorinthMISSISSIPPI22016
TupeloMISSISSIPPI22009
Cypress LakesNORTH-CAROLINA22008
BishopvilleSOUTH-CAROLINA21992
BrownsvilleTENNESSEE22006
AutaugavilleALABAMA11998
CuthbertGEORGIA12012
LyonsGEORGIA11994
WrightsvilleGEORGIA11988

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.