BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Song Sparrow In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Song Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition has edged down: down 14% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-14%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
161Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Song Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Song Sparrow In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 33 (95% range 24–43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
24–4395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 33 (95% range 24–43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026342443
2027342443
2028342443
2029332443
2030332443

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Song Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BismarkOHIO721995
OmroWISCONSIN692001
PardeevilleWISCONSIN692025
VickeryOHIO682025
AnnatonWISCONSIN662025
LakevilleINDIANA652024
HamburgMICHIGAN622001
Fall RiverWISCONSIN622025
WhitewaterMINNESOTA612000
StetsonvilleWISCONSIN612025
HolwayWISCONSIN571989
N FreedomWISCONSIN562025
LaporteINDIANA552024
NapoleonOHIO552025
St CharlesMICHIGAN542019
S LyonsMICHIGAN541992
JuniataMICHIGAN532024
BrownsvilleWISCONSIN532025
CascoWISCONSIN502025
Hazel GreenWISCONSIN502025
KendallWISCONSIN492025
TrempealeauWISCONSIN482025
N AndoverWISCONSIN482025
ParisWISCONSIN472025
BeloitWISCONSIN472025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.