BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Song Sparrow In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Song Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition has edged down: down 16% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-16%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
161Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Song Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Song Sparrow In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 34 (95% range 24–43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
24–4395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 34 (95% range 24–43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025342444
2026342444
2027342444
2028342444
2029342443

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Song Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TrempealeauWISCONSIN752024
BismarkOHIO721995
Fall RiverWISCONSIN702024
OmroWISCONSIN692001
PardeevilleWISCONSIN662024
LakevilleINDIANA652024
VickeryOHIO652024
HamburgMICHIGAN622001
WhitewaterMINNESOTA612000
CohoctahMICHIGAN602024
HolwayWISCONSIN571989
LaporteINDIANA552024
St CharlesMICHIGAN542019
S LyonsMICHIGAN541992
JuniataMICHIGAN532024
N AndoverWISCONSIN512024
BeloitWISCONSIN502024
AnnatonWISCONSIN492024
No BradleyMICHIGAN482024
FestinaIOWA462024
EdenWISCONSIN462024
KnappMINNESOTA452024
NapoleonOHIO452024
HoltMICHIGAN442024
North BranchMICHIGAN441999

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.