BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Song Sparrow In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieForest birds

Song Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 495% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+495%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Song Sparrow has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 495% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Song Sparrow In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.78 (95% range 0.50–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.78Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.50–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.78 (95% range 0.50–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.720.441.0
20270.730.451.0
20280.750.471.0
20290.760.481.0
20300.780.501.1

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Song Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
JohnstownNEBRASKA122025
BelvidereNEBRASKA72025
HamptonNEBRASKA72025
JamestownKANSAS52018
Wheeler CoNEBRASKA52025
ChambersNEBRASKA52025
MaxwellNEBRASKA52025
CoatsKANSAS41974
LeovilleKANSAS41969
PetersburgNEBRASKA42025
KenesawNEBRASKA32025
KearneyNEBRASKA32024
SurpriseNEBRASKA32025
BerwynNEBRASKA32010
Berwyn 2NEBRASKA32025
SumnerNEBRASKA22025
AlmeriaNEBRASKA22021
TableNEBRASKA22025
Liberty 3NEBRASKA22019
HendleyNEBRASKA22024
KanopolisKANSAS11969
HanoverKANSAS12013
HollenbergKANSAS12021
LibertyNEBRASKA12003
SewardNEBRASKA12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.