BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Song Sparrow In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Song Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-53%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Song Sparrow has fallen sharply in Shortgrass Prairie: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Song Sparrow In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±111.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+0%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±111.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±111.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.060.000.14
20260.060.000.14
20270.060.000.14
20280.060.000.14
20290.060.000.14

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Song Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
YoderWYOMING51971
ElbertCOLORADO32024
ArsenalCOLORADO32015
KiowaCOLORADO22017
Last ChanceCOLORADO22016
HudsonCOLORADO22023
Adams Co.COLORADO22016
Gordon CreekCOLORADO22023
NinaviewCOLORADO21996
PaxtonNEBRASKA22016
CheyenneWYOMING22024
BriggsdaleCOLORADO11988
PinneoCOLORADO11977
Two ButtesCOLORADO11992
BethuneCOLORADO11995
NeegrandeCOLORADO11998
Fort MorganCOLORADO12009
BennettCOLORADO12018
FlaglerCOLORADO12023
Doyle Bridge 2COLORADO12019
Arsenal 2COLORADO12023
DaltonNEBRASKA12003
CrawfordNEBRASKA12004
Agate 2NEBRASKA12007
Hay SpringsNEBRASKA12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.