BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Song Sparrow In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieForest birds

Song Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie has held roughly steady: up 2% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+2%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Song Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Song Sparrow In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 67% by 2030 — from 0.22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±126%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-67%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±126%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 67% by 2030 — from 0.22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±126%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.070.000.17
20270.070.000.17
20280.070.000.17
20290.070.000.17
20300.070.000.17

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Song Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
YoderWYOMING51971
ArsenalCOLORADO32015
CheyenneWYOMING32025
KiowaCOLORADO22017
Last ChanceCOLORADO22016
HudsonCOLORADO22023
Adams Co.COLORADO22016
Gordon CreekCOLORADO22023
Last Chance 2COLORADO22025
NinaviewCOLORADO21996
ElbertCOLORADO22025
Doyle Bridge 2COLORADO22025
Arsenal 2COLORADO22025
PaxtonNEBRASKA22016
BriggsdaleCOLORADO11988
PinneoCOLORADO12025
RushCOLORADO12025
Two ButtesCOLORADO11992
BethuneCOLORADO11995
StonehamCOLORADO12025
NeegrandeCOLORADO11998
Fort MorganCOLORADO12009
BennettCOLORADO12018
FlaglerCOLORADO12023
Prospect Valley 2COLORADO12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.