BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Song Sparrow In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGeneralists

Song Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 144% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+144%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
94Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Song Sparrow has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 144% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 35% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.82–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.82–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 35% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.82–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.742.1
20261.50.762.2
20271.50.782.2
20281.50.802.2
20291.50.822.2

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Song Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
St XavierMONTANA262010
Long DrawSOUTH-DAKOTA192024
RochfordSOUTH-DAKOTA172018
Pine TreeWYOMING141995
Black FoxSOUTH-DAKOTA132017
Eagle ButteSOUTH-DAKOTA92015
VolunteerSOUTH-DAKOTA82012
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA72024
Hill CitySOUTH-DAKOTA72013
HighwoodMONTANA62024
ZapNORTH-DAKOTA62024
Lightning CrSOUTH-DAKOTA61998
JordanMONTANA52010
EnglewoodSOUTH-DAKOTA52021
SundanceWYOMING52024
DaytonWYOMING52024
SavageMONTANA41979
Cedar CreekNORTH-DAKOTA42022
CusterSOUTH-DAKOTA42024
RavenWYOMING42015
Moskee 2WYOMING42018
Moskee 3WYOMING42024
FlatwillowMONTANA32008
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA32024
BentleyNORTH-DAKOTA32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.