BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Song Sparrow In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaForest birds

Song Sparrow in Sierra Nevada has increased: up 25% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+25%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Song Sparrow in Sierra Nevada. See the full index history below.

Song Sparrow In Sierra Nevada Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Sierra Nevada is projected to rise about 33% by 2030 — from 3.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 2.2–6.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+33%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–6.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Sierra Nevada is projected to rise about 33% by 2030 — from 3.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 2.2–6.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.12.16.2
20274.22.16.2
20284.22.26.3
20294.32.26.3
20304.32.26.4

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Song Sparrow in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GeneseeCALIFORNIA222024
PaxtonCALIFORNIA182025
Last ChanceCALIFORNIA152019
ChilcootCALIFORNIA142024
LakeshoreCALIFORNIA92024
Tuolumne GroveCALIFORNIA82025
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA71975
Little TruckeeCALIFORNIA72025
WoodfordsCALIFORNIA62025
JohnsvilleCALIFORNIA52025
Butte MeadowCALIFORNIA52014
Meadow ValleyCALIFORNIA52025
SattleyCALIFORNIA32025
DownievilleCALIFORNIA32025
KernvilleCALIFORNIA32008
Lassen ParkCALIFORNIA21987
Cottage SpgsCALIFORNIA21974
Kings CanyonCALIFORNIA22024
Higgins CornCALIFORNIA22025
DardanelleCALIFORNIA12019
Bass LakeCALIFORNIA12018
Greenhorn MtCALIFORNIA11990
Silver CityCALIFORNIA12013
RivertonCALIFORNIA12025
Hat CreekCALIFORNIA12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.