BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Song Sparrow In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestGeneralists

Song Sparrow in Atlantic Northern Forest has edged down: down 21% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-21%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
155Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Song Sparrow in Atlantic Northern Forest. See the full index history below.

Song Sparrow In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 45% by 2029 — from 23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 6.1–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-45%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.1–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 45% by 2029 — from 23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 6.1–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025136.920
2026136.720
2027136.519
2028136.319
2029136.119

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Song Sparrow in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WashburnMAINE782005
Ft FairfieldMAINE612005
SearsportMAINE482024
HardwickVERMONT482024
StoweVERMONT482024
HighmarketNEW-YORK462024
HarmonyMAINE432024
St DavidMAINE412005
S WallingfrdVERMONT412022
East HavenVERMONT402024
Turner 2MAINE392024
St JohnsburyVERMONT382024
FletcherVERMONT382024
BrooksMAINE372019
BoundaryMAINE372016
Bowdoin CtrMAINE362021
East TroyMAINE362019
PittsfieldMASSACHUSETTS362016
W RutlandVERMONT362024
East CalaisVERMONT362024
LandgroveVERMONT352024
CornvilleMAINE342024
MontereyMASSACHUSETTS342024
ConcordNEW-HAMPSHIRE342024
KasoagNEW-YORK342024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.