BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Song Sparrow In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGeneralists

Song Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has held roughly steady: down 7% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-7%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Song Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 46 in 2024 to a central estimate of 37 (95% range 29–44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
29–4495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 46 in 2024 to a central estimate of 37 (95% range 29–44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025373045
2026373044
2027373044
2028373044
2029372944

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Song Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OrleansNEW-YORK1352024
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK932024
MacdougallNEW-YORK902024
NashvilleNEW-YORK842018
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA832024
NaplesNEW-YORK712024
HinesburgVERMONT701994
LucerneOHIO692024
HiramOHIO672021
North EastonNEW-YORK662024
CayugaNEW-YORK652024
CastileNEW-YORK652024
ArgyleNEW-YORK642024
SheridanNEW-YORK632024
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK592024
RushvilleNEW-YORK592024
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA572023
BranchportNEW-YORK562024
OgdensburgNEW-YORK562024
WatertownNEW-YORK542012
Alder CreekNEW-YORK542004
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK532024
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK522024
E YoungstownNEW-YORK512023
PulaskiNEW-YORK472024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.