BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Song Sparrow In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Song Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has held roughly steady: down 5% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-5%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Song Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Song Sparrow In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 44 in 2025 to a central estimate of 37 (95% range 30–44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
30–4495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 44 in 2025 to a central estimate of 37 (95% range 30–44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026383045
2027373045
2028373045
2029373044
2030373044

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Song Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OrleansNEW-YORK1142025
MacdougallNEW-YORK1082025
NashvilleNEW-YORK842018
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK832025
North EastonNEW-YORK722025
SheridanNEW-YORK712025
NaplesNEW-YORK702025
HinesburgVERMONT701994
LucerneOHIO652025
ArgyleNEW-YORK642024
E YoungstownNEW-YORK632025
CastileNEW-YORK612025
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA612025
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK582025
CayugaNEW-YORK562025
BranchportNEW-YORK562024
WatertownNEW-YORK542012
Alder CreekNEW-YORK542004
BristolVERMONT522025
Ferris CrnrsPENNSYLVANIA512025
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK502025
ByronNEW-YORK492025
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK462025
GarrettsvileOHIO461991
DuanesburgNEW-YORK432025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.