BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Song Sparrow In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGeneralists

Song Sparrow in Northern Rockies has edged up: up 23% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+23%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
207Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Song Sparrow in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.4 (95% range 4.3–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.3–8.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.4 (95% range 4.3–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.34.28.5
20266.44.28.5
20276.44.28.5
20286.44.38.5
20296.44.38.6

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Song Sparrow in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ChallisIDAHO362024
Thompson RivMONTANA322024
CabartonIDAHO272023
Buckskin MtnWYOMING272021
NezperceIDAHO262012
CentervilleIDAHO262019
WilsonWYOMING252024
Rochat DivdeIDAHO242023
ChestnutMONTANA232024
Silver CreekOREGON232024
PierceIDAHO222007
Donelly 2OREGON222024
FeathervilleIDAHO212024
Hells CanyonOREGON212022
NaplesIDAHO202024
GoldenIDAHO202016
ClintonMONTANA202024
Fish CreekMONTANA202024
LogdellOREGON202024
BoulderWYOMING202024
Big SandyWYOMING202024
Summit PrOREGON192024
PathfinderWYOMING182018
Seedskadee 2WYOMING182024
NewbridgeOREGON172024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.