BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Snail Kite Population Trend in Florida

All statesGeneralists

Snail Kite in Florida has collapsed: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

-94%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Snail Kite Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Snail Kite has collapsed in Florida: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Snail Kite Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Snail Kite in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±716.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±716.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Snail Kite in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±716.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.000.000.31
20240.000.000.31
20250.000.000.31
20260.000.000.31
20270.000.000.31

Snail Kite Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Snail Kite in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Holey Land320181994
Flamingo120182018
Andytown119891976
St Lucie120171998
Shawano120021999
Webb120172001
Corbett120221994
Weaver Stn120192019
Childs120042004

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.