BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Short-billed Gull In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestWetland birds

Short-billed Gull in Northern Pacific Rainforest has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

-47%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Short-billed Gull in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Short-billed Gull In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Short-billed Gull in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.00–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.25Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Short-billed Gull in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.00–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.350.002.5
20260.330.002.5
20270.300.002.5
20280.270.002.4
20290.250.002.4

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Short-billed Gull in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SewardALASKA1321992
Juneau AltALASKA831986
PetersburgALASKA481987
Alpenglow (Short)ALASKA182012
JuneauALASKA172013
SkagwayALASKA162023
Sitka (Short)ALASKA151992
CordovaALASKA142024
Moose PassALASKA121992
KetchikanALASKA92022
Mitkof IsleALASKA92012
HainesALASKA52024
YakutatALASKA42024
HopeALASKA42021
Zimovia StrtALASKA42018
Harlequin L.ALASKA42018
Elmendorf (Short)ALASKA41984
Thorne BayALASKA32012
Copper RiverALASKA32011
Stikine RiverALASKA32021
CraigALASKA22017
Thompson PasALASKA12023
Sheep MtnALASKA12014
SitkaALASKA12024
Whale PassALASKA12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.