Species · BCR 2 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Short-billed Gull In BCR 2
Short-billed Gull in BCR 2 has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1985.
-65%Since 1985
23Routes In Region
41Years
Notable Signals
long arc declinecomputed index
Short-billed Gull has fallen sharply in BCR 2: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1985.
Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Short-billed Gull in BCR 2 is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.9 (95% range 0.00–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-12%Change by 2029
8.9Projected 2029 index
0.00–3695% range
±15.6%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 9.7 | 0.00 | 37 |
| 2026 | 9.5 | 0.00 | 37 |
| 2027 | 9.3 | 0.00 | 36 |
| 2028 | 9.1 | 0.00 | 36 |
| 2029 | 8.9 | 0.00 | 36 |
Routes In BCR 2
| Cape Nome | ALASKA | 43 | 2024 |
| Cold Bay | ALASKA | 27 | 2024 |
| Kotzebue (Short) | ALASKA | 26 | 1994 |
| Tupuknuk | ALASKA | 21 | 1995 |
| Goodnews Bay | ALASKA | 21 | 2005 |
| Nome | ALASKA | 16 | 2023 |
| Kanektok Riv | ALASKA | 16 | 2005 |
| King Salmon | ALASKA | 13 | 2024 |
| Cold Bay (Short) | ALASKA | 9 | 1992 |
| Dillingham | ALASKA | 7 | 2011 |
| Kodiak | ALASKA | 5 | 1984 |
| Kotzebue | ALASKA | 5 | 2022 |
| Teller | ALASKA | 4 | 2024 |
| Togiak River | ALASKA | 4 | 2005 |
| Selawik (Short) | ALASKA | 4 | 1987 |
| Katmai N.P. | ALASKA | 2 | 2022 |
| Chiniak | ALASKA | 2 | 2023 |
| Salmon Lake | ALASKA | 2 | 2024 |
| St. Mary'S | ALASKA | 2 | 2014 |
| Kodiak 2 | ALASKA | 1 | 2024 |
| Council | ALASKA | 1 | 2024 |
| Gweek River | ALASKA | 1 | 2002 |
| Kugarak (Short) | ALASKA | 1 | 1987 |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.