BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 2 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Short-billed Gull In BCR 2

All regionsBCR 2Wetland birds

Short-billed Gull in BCR 2 has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

-65%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Short-billed Gull has fallen sharply in BCR 2: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

Short-billed Gull In BCR 2 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Short-billed Gull in BCR 2 is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.9 (95% range 0.00–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Short-billed Gull in BCR 2 is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.9 (95% range 0.00–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19832029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.70.0037
20269.50.0037
20279.30.0036
20289.10.0036
20298.90.0036

Routes In BCR 2

Routes recording Short-billed Gull in BCR 2.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cape NomeALASKA432024
Cold BayALASKA272024
Kotzebue (Short)ALASKA261994
TupuknukALASKA211995
Goodnews BayALASKA212005
NomeALASKA162023
Kanektok RivALASKA162005
King SalmonALASKA132024
Cold Bay (Short)ALASKA91992
DillinghamALASKA72011
KodiakALASKA51984
KotzebueALASKA52022
TellerALASKA42024
Togiak RiverALASKA42005
Selawik (Short)ALASKA41987
Katmai N.P.ALASKA22022
ChiniakALASKA22023
Salmon LakeALASKA22024
St. Mary'SALASKA22014
Kodiak 2ALASKA12024
CouncilALASKA12024
Gweek RiverALASKA12002
Kugarak (Short)ALASKA11987

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.