BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sharp-shinned Hawk In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestGeneralists

Sharp-shinned Hawk in Northern Pacific Rainforest has fallen sharply: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-75%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sharp-shinned Hawk has fallen sharply in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Sharp-shinned Hawk In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sharp-shinned Hawk in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±77.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sharp-shinned Hawk in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.07
20260.030.000.07
20270.030.000.07
20280.030.000.07
20290.030.000.07

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Sharp-shinned Hawk in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mitkof IsleALASKA22019
WedderburnOREGON22018
Sams ValleyOREGON22011
SalemOREGON22009
KamilcheWASHINGTON21989
HainesALASKA11996
Sheep MtnALASKA12007
SitkaALASKA12018
Thorne BayALASKA11994
Zimovia StrtALASKA12023
Harlequin L.ALASKA11996
HoonahALASKA11995
SkagwayALASKA12006
ZaremboALASKA12022
Alpenglow (Short)ALASKA11998
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA11972
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA12000
HoneydewCALIFORNIA12008
HolmesCALIFORNIA12013
HullvilleCALIFORNIA12000
NavarroCALIFORNIA11993
LongvaleCALIFORNIA12003
OrleansCALIFORNIA11983
MccloudCALIFORNIA12000
Mt ShastaCALIFORNIA11976

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.