BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sharp-shinned Hawk In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaGeneralists

Sharp-shinned Hawk in Coastal California has edged up: up 17% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+17%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Sharp-shinned Hawk in Coastal California. See the full index history below.

Sharp-shinned Hawk In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sharp-shinned Hawk in Coastal California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.04 (95% range 0.01–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±142.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±142.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sharp-shinned Hawk in Coastal California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.04 (95% range 0.01–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±142.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.040.000.07
20240.040.000.07
20250.040.010.07
20260.040.010.07
20270.040.010.07

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Sharp-shinned Hawk in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Red BluffCALIFORNIA11987
RumseyCALIFORNIA11991
HughsonCALIFORNIA11979
Oak GroveCALIFORNIA11977
HollisterCALIFORNIA11997
CoalingaCALIFORNIA11989
Orange CoveCALIFORNIA12011
Point ReyesCALIFORNIA12009
AuburnCALIFORNIA11979
OrlandCALIFORNIA11997
FairfaxCALIFORNIA11996
FolsomCALIFORNIA11987
TujungaCALIFORNIA11986
Carmel ValCALIFORNIA12008
ValyermoCALIFORNIA11973
Elsinore MtnCALIFORNIA11972
Cp. PendletonCALIFORNIA11980
Mt BaldyCALIFORNIA11982
Lake CachumaCALIFORNIA11988
JacumbaCALIFORNIA11974
CrestonCALIFORNIA12015
Mt Pinos 2CALIFORNIA12013
Gold HillCALIFORNIA11988
TehamaCALIFORNIA12012
MoragaCALIFORNIA12004

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.