BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sharp-shinned Hawk In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGeneralists

Sharp-shinned Hawk in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has held roughly steady: down 10% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

-10%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Sharp-shinned Hawk in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sharp-shinned Hawk in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2024TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2024 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sharp-shinned Hawk in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692024
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20200.020.000.04
20210.020.000.04
20220.020.000.04
20230.020.000.04
20240.020.000.04

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Sharp-shinned Hawk in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HaysKANSAS22008
St JohnKANSAS11977
CoatsKANSAS12000
AshlandKANSAS12004
BuckeyeKANSAS12005
AlbertKANSAS12019
KanopolisKANSAS11983
CovertKANSAS11986
JewellKANSAS11992
PhillipsburgKANSAS11976
LoganKANSAS11976
HopewellKANSAS12009
HodgesKANSAS12008
GoesselKANSAS12007
KennedyNEBRASKA12004
DouglasOKLAHOMA12005
ChesterOKLAHOMA11988
JetOKLAHOMA12001
WoodwardOKLAHOMA11992
Shields 2TEXAS12006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.