BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sharp-shinned Hawk In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGeneralists

Sharp-shinned Hawk in Badlands and Prairies has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-74%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sharp-shinned Hawk has fallen sharply in Badlands and Prairies: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Sharp-shinned Hawk In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sharp-shinned Hawk in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sharp-shinned Hawk in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.010.000.05
20250.010.000.05
20260.010.000.05
20270.010.000.05
20280.010.000.05

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Sharp-shinned Hawk in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Soda WellWYOMING32015
HighwoodMONTANA21973
BrusettMONTANA11988
IngomarMONTANA12003
Reed PointMONTANA12023
PowdervilleMONTANA11970
Flatwillow 2MONTANA12014
Miles CityMONTANA12017
Bull Mtn.MONTANA12001
Ft YatesNORTH-DAKOTA11991
LarkNORTH-DAKOTA11977
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA11975
ZapNORTH-DAKOTA12000
Roosevelt PkNORTH-DAKOTA12005
GolvaNORTH-DAKOTA11987
CusterSOUTH-DAKOTA12002
Cedar PassSOUTH-DAKOTA11973
Pleasant ValSOUTH-DAKOTA11997
Long DrawSOUTH-DAKOTA12021
Silver CitySOUTH-DAKOTA11999
NorbeckSOUTH-DAKOTA12001
HazelrodtSOUTH-DAKOTA12015
Lightning CrSOUTH-DAKOTA12015
Wind Cave NpSOUTH-DAKOTA12002
SundanceWYOMING12011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.