BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sharp-shinned Hawk In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

Sharp-shinned Hawk in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-79%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sharp-shinned Hawk has collapsed in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Sharp-shinned Hawk In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sharp-shinned Hawk in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sharp-shinned Hawk in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.06
20260.010.000.05
20270.010.000.05
20280.010.000.05
20290.010.000.05

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Sharp-shinned Hawk in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Blackhead PkCOLORADO31998
Sybille CynWYOMING31991
Lost LakeCOLORADO22019
De BequeCOLORADO21996
Haycamp MesaCOLORADO22010
BeckUTAH21980
VernalUTAH22011
Round RockARIZONA11970
Rose WellsARIZONA11970
ZeniffARIZONA11968
YampaCOLORADO12009
HarmonyCOLORADO11997
Douglas PassCOLORADO12023
BufordCOLORADO11991
AspenCOLORADO12024
Cheesman LkCOLORADO12008
DeltaCOLORADO11975
ColonaCOLORADO12004
ParlinCOLORADO12000
DoloresCOLORADO11968
Wray GulchCOLORADO11997
Wilson CreekCOLORADO12000
FruitaCOLORADO12003
Willow PeakCOLORADO12014
Red CliffCOLORADO12003

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.