BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sharp-shinned Hawk In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaGeneralists

Sharp-shinned Hawk in Sierra Nevada has held roughly steady: down 3% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

-3%Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
18YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Sharp-shinned Hawk in Sierra Nevada. See the full index history below.

Sharp-shinned Hawk In Sierra Nevada Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sharp-shinned Hawk in Sierra Nevada is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.07 (95% range 0.03–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sharp-shinned Hawk in Sierra Nevada is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.07 (95% range 0.03–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.070.030.10
20230.070.030.10
20240.070.030.10
20250.070.030.10
20260.070.030.10

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Sharp-shinned Hawk in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Forest HillCALIFORNIA22001
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA12003
WestvilleCALIFORNIA12021
WoodfordsCALIFORNIA11995
Greenhorn MtCALIFORNIA11994
Silver CityCALIFORNIA12013
Tuolumne GroveCALIFORNIA12014
Butte MeadowCALIFORNIA11972
RivertonCALIFORNIA12019
Hat CreekCALIFORNIA11996
Meadow ValleyCALIFORNIA12016
Last ChanceCALIFORNIA12014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.