BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sharp-shinned Hawk In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGeneralists

Sharp-shinned Hawk in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has held roughly steady: down 1% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-1%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Sharp-shinned Hawk in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Sharp-shinned Hawk In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sharp-shinned Hawk in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.01–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±86.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sharp-shinned Hawk in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.01–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.010.13
20260.070.010.13
20270.070.010.13
20280.070.010.13
20290.070.010.13

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Sharp-shinned Hawk in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BranchportNEW-YORK22014
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA21968
RhinebeckNEW-YORK12005
HighlandNEW-YORK11991
W ShokanNEW-YORK11996
AusterlitzNEW-YORK12023
CatskillsNEW-YORK12015
GhentNEW-YORK12021
Ballston LkNEW-YORK11994
DuanesburgNEW-YORK12014
MacdougallNEW-YORK11995
TrumansburgNEW-YORK11995
OrleansNEW-YORK12023
RushvilleNEW-YORK12013
Canadice LNEW-YORK12022
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK12019
HamburgNEW-YORK12009
CastileNEW-YORK12011
RandolphNEW-YORK12012
SheridanNEW-YORK11990
Cherry HillNEW-YORK11987
NashvilleNEW-YORK12018
St JohnsburgNEW-YORK12022
ByronNEW-YORK12024
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK11981

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.