BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sharp-shinned Hawk In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGeneralists

Sharp-shinned Hawk in Northern Rockies has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-47%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
90Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Sharp-shinned Hawk in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sharp-shinned Hawk in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sharp-shinned Hawk in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.07
20260.030.000.06
20270.030.000.06
20280.020.000.06
20290.020.000.06

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Sharp-shinned Hawk in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Libby DamMONTANA21989
KalispellMONTANA21986
WoodmanMONTANA22017
LimaMONTANA22015
NoxonMONTANA22021
Pryor Mtn.MONTANA22016
NorthportWASHINGTON22008
DuboisWYOMING21981
NaplesIDAHO12008
MivodenIDAHO12018
AveryIDAHO12013
Lolo PassIDAHO12001
GrangevilleIDAHO11987
ChallisIDAHO12021
CentervilleIDAHO12019
Baldy MountainIDAHO12016
Sawtooth CtyIDAHO12010
Salmon RiverIDAHO12005
Crane CreekIDAHO12007
Yellow PineIDAHO12007
St MaryMONTANA11992
St RegisMONTANA12022
ArleeMONTANA11979
ClintonMONTANA12008
EllistonMONTANA11994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.