BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Sharp-shinned Hawk In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesBirds of prey

Sharp-shinned Hawk in Northern Rockies has collapsed: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-80%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
91Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sharp-shinned Hawk has collapsed in Northern Rockies: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Sharp-shinned Hawk In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sharp-shinned Hawk in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±92.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sharp-shinned Hawk in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.020.000.06
20270.020.000.06
20280.020.000.06
20290.020.000.06
20300.020.000.06

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Sharp-shinned Hawk in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Libby DamMONTANA21989
KalispellMONTANA21986
WoodmanMONTANA22017
LimaMONTANA22015
NoxonMONTANA22021
Pryor Mtn.MONTANA22016
NorthportWASHINGTON22008
DuboisWYOMING21981
NaplesIDAHO12008
MivodenIDAHO12018
AveryIDAHO12013
Lolo PassIDAHO12001
GrangevilleIDAHO11987
ChallisIDAHO12021
CentervilleIDAHO12019
Baldy MountainIDAHO12016
Sawtooth CtyIDAHO12010
Salmon RiverIDAHO12005
Crane CreekIDAHO12007
Yellow PineIDAHO12007
St MaryMONTANA11992
St RegisMONTANA12022
ArleeMONTANA11979
ClintonMONTANA12008
EllistonMONTANA11994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.