BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Semipalmated Plover In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Shorebirds

Semipalmated Plover in BCR 4 has collapsed: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

-87%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Semipalmated Plover has collapsed in BCR 4: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Semipalmated Plover in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±103.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±103.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Semipalmated Plover in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±103.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.34
20260.000.000.34
20270.000.000.34
20280.000.000.34
20290.000.000.34

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Semipalmated Plover in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Paxson LakeALASKA71997
HomerALASKA61982
Lake LouiseALASKA42010
ChistochinaALASKA31995
MonahanALASKA32010
Birch LakeALASKA22017
Hather CreekALASKA21996
Tangle LakesALASKA21987
McgrathALASKA21999
Koyukuk Riv.ALASKA22001
Kobuk River (Short)ALASKA21991
Galena (Short)ALASKA22013
MaclarenALASKA12024
CantwellALASKA11986
ToklatALASKA12006
MatanuskaALASKA11982
Kenny LakeALASKA12004
SavageALASKA12006
Chena Hot Spring 2ALASKA12006
Nicholai SlALASKA12024
KachemakALASKA11989
Burma RoadALASKA12007
Unalakleet RiverALASKA12024
Kanuti CanynALASKA12016
Mud RiverALASKA12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.