BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Seaside Sparrow In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieWetland birds

Seaside Sparrow in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 135% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+135%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Seaside Sparrow has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 134% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Seaside Sparrow In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Seaside Sparrow in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 419% by 2030 — from 0.55 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 0.00–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1368%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+419%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±1368%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Seaside Sparrow in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 419% by 2030 — from 0.55 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 0.00–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1368%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.60.005.9
20272.70.005.9
20282.70.006.0
20292.80.006.0
20302.80.006.1

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Seaside Sparrow in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Grand IsleLOUISIANA1172019
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA142011
ChinquapinTEXAS62025
Oyster LakeTEXAS52025
Padre Island PaisTEXAS52015
Bayside 2TEXAS31997
HackberryLOUISIANA22016
BaysideTEXAS21994
CreoleLOUISIANA11973
GlencoeLOUISIANA11997
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA12021
Sabine NwrLOUISIANA12002
IndianolaTEXAS12012
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.