BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Seaside Sparrow In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieGeneralists

Seaside Sparrow in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+80%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Seaside Sparrow has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Seaside Sparrow in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 16× by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 0.00–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1177.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

16×Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±1177.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Seaside Sparrow in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 16× by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 0.00–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1177.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.80.006.0
20262.80.006.1
20272.90.006.1
20282.90.006.2
20293.00.006.2

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Seaside Sparrow in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Grand IsleLOUISIANA1172019
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA142011
Padre Island PaisTEXAS52015
Bayside 2TEXAS31997
HackberryLOUISIANA22016
ChinquapinTEXAS22024
Oyster LakeTEXAS22024
BaysideTEXAS21994
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS22023
CreoleLOUISIANA11973
GlencoeLOUISIANA11997
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA12021
Sabine NwrLOUISIANA12002
IndianolaTEXAS12012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.