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Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Seaside Sparrow In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainGeneralists

Seaside Sparrow in Southeastern Coastal Plain has collapsed: down 96% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-96%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Seaside Sparrow has collapsed in Southeastern Coastal Plain: down 96% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Seaside Sparrow In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Seaside Sparrow in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±467.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±467.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Seaside Sparrow in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±467.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.050.000.18
20260.050.000.18
20270.050.000.18
20280.040.000.18
20290.040.000.18

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Seaside Sparrow in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dauphin Is 2ALABAMA92018
St Vincent IFLORIDA92019
Dauphin IsALABAMA21990
Port St JoeFLORIDA21997
SteinhatcheeFLORIDA12023
Alligator PtFLORIDA12024
MerrimonNORTH-CAROLINA12023
SupplyNORTH-CAROLINA12008
Johns IsleSOUTH-CAROLINA11979

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.