BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scaled Quail In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

Scaled Quail in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-76%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scaled Quail has collapsed in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scaled Quail in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 59% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-59%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scaled Quail in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 59% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.080.000.33
20260.080.000.33
20270.070.000.32
20280.070.000.32
20290.060.000.31

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Scaled Quail in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ValenciaNEW-MEXICO121997
FarmingtonNEW-MEXICO51987
NageesiNEW-MEXICO52024
CrownpointNEW-MEXICO51995
Claunch 2NEW-MEXICO52022
GreasewoodARIZONA41996
TorreonNEW-MEXICO42021
Horse SpgsNEW-MEXICO42011
CorreoNEW-MEXICO31982
CounselorNEW-MEXICO32024
MountainairNEW-MEXICO32024
PasturaNEW-MEXICO32024
SanosteeNEW-MEXICO32024
AztecNEW-MEXICO31988
Gallo ArroyoNEW-MEXICO32019
CebollaNEW-MEXICO22018
NewcombNEW-MEXICO22021
Cerro VerdeNEW-MEXICO22019
CokedaleCOLORADO12006
WalsenburgCOLORADO12002
La CienegaNEW-MEXICO12021
PecosNEW-MEXICO12016
ClaunchNEW-MEXICO12000
Horse MtnNEW-MEXICO12024
ShiprockNEW-MEXICO12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.