BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scaled Quail In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGame birds

Scaled Quail in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-57%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scaled Quail has fallen sharply in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Scaled Quail In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scaled Quail in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 77% by 2030 — from 0.35 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-77%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scaled Quail in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 77% by 2030 — from 0.35 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.100.000.35
20270.090.000.35
20280.090.000.35
20290.090.000.34
20300.080.000.34

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Scaled Quail in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PasturaNEW-MEXICO142025
ShiprockNEW-MEXICO132025
ValenciaNEW-MEXICO121997
NageesiNEW-MEXICO102025
SanosteeNEW-MEXICO92025
FarmingtonNEW-MEXICO51987
CrownpointNEW-MEXICO51995
Claunch 2NEW-MEXICO52022
GreasewoodARIZONA41996
Horse SpgsNEW-MEXICO42011
TorreonNEW-MEXICO32025
CorreoNEW-MEXICO31982
MountainairNEW-MEXICO32024
AztecNEW-MEXICO31988
Gallo ArroyoNEW-MEXICO32019
CebollaNEW-MEXICO22018
NewcombNEW-MEXICO22021
Cerro VerdeNEW-MEXICO22025
CokedaleCOLORADO12006
WalsenburgCOLORADO12002
La CienegaNEW-MEXICO12021
PecosNEW-MEXICO12016
ClaunchNEW-MEXICO12000
Horse MtnNEW-MEXICO12024
CounselorNEW-MEXICO12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.