BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Savannah Sparrow In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaGrassland birds

Savannah Sparrow in Coastal California has declined: down 41% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-41%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Savannah Sparrow in Coastal California. See the full index history below.

Savannah Sparrow In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in Coastal California is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.08 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±150%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±150%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in Coastal California is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.08 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±150%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.010.000.29
20270.000.000.28
20280.000.000.28
20290.000.000.28
20300.000.000.28

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Savannah Sparrow in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PowayCALIFORNIA381980
HughsonCALIFORNIA301977
OrlandCALIFORNIA101993
OilfieldsCALIFORNIA82005
Ora LomaCALIFORNIA51976
San YsidroCALIFORNIA41976
CollegevilleCALIFORNIA31972
FairfaxCALIFORNIA31973
Carrizo PlnCALIFORNIA32023
GlennCALIFORNIA31971
Mark WestCALIFORNIA31992
South LakeCALIFORNIA32006
RiovistaCALIFORNIA22025
GravesboroCALIFORNIA21991
ParkfieldCALIFORNIA22007
Morro BayCALIFORNIA21992
El ToroCALIFORNIA21982
Lockwood ValCALIFORNIA22001
Yolla BollyCALIFORNIA22010
Red BluffCALIFORNIA12022
Santa YnezCALIFORNIA11970
CoalingaCALIFORNIA12013
Orange CoveCALIFORNIA12003
Big BearCALIFORNIA11986
Point ReyesCALIFORNIA12014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.