BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Savannah Sparrow In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastGrassland birds

Savannah Sparrow in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has declined: down 33% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-33%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Savannah Sparrow in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 42% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-42%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 42% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.050.000.13
20260.050.000.13
20270.050.000.13
20280.050.000.13
20290.050.000.13

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Savannah Sparrow in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HoldenMASSACHUSETTS52024
ChilmarkMASSACHUSETTS31973
Cape CharlesVIRGINIA31999
MysticCONNECTICUT21980
BuckinghamCONNECTICUT22022
UncasvilleCONNECTICUT22022
WillimanticCONNECTICUT22007
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS21999
S BarreMASSACHUSETTS21989
AlbionNEW-JERSEY22010
HuntingtonNEW-YORK21981
BedfordNEW-YORK21968
No WoodburyCONNECTICUT12011
ShermanCONNECTICUT12016
WarrenCONNECTICUT11993
SouthingtonCONNECTICUT11981
HarringtonDELAWARE12010
ElktonMARYLAND12010
MarionMASSACHUSETTS12024
PrattvilleMASSACHUSETTS12018
NewburyportMASSACHUSETTS12017
MaynardMASSACHUSETTS11975
LittletonMASSACHUSETTS11978
PrincetonMASSACHUSETTS11975
E PepperellMASSACHUSETTS11990

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.