BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Savannah Sparrow In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGrassland birds

Savannah Sparrow in Appalachian Mountains has collapsed: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-78%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
181Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Savannah Sparrow has collapsed in Appalachian Mountains: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Savannah Sparrow In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 43% by 2029 — from 0.41 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-43%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 43% by 2029 — from 0.41 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.360.000.89
20260.330.000.86
20270.300.000.83
20280.270.000.79
20290.230.000.76

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Savannah Sparrow in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
StonecreekOHIO152024
DrydenNEW-YORK132024
PortersvillePENNSYLVANIA121988
BebeeWEST-VIRGINIA112006
CentervilleNEW-YORK102015
JenningsMARYLAND62024
McdonoughNEW-YORK62017
OxfordNEW-YORK61976
Phillips CrNEW-YORK62023
SwainNEW-YORK62007
CattaraugusNEW-YORK62019
Little MarshPENNSYLVANIA52024
DenmarWEST-VIRGINIA52024
Mt NeboMARYLAND41991
MeridaleNEW-YORK42024
CoventryvileNEW-YORK42021
Vestal CtrNEW-YORK42018
GainesvilleNEW-YORK42023
RasselasPENNSYLVANIA42022
AustinvillePENNSYLVANIA42024
HonesdalePENNSYLVANIA42024
StarlightPENNSYLVANIA41992
SuttonWEST-VIRGINIA41989
AccidentMARYLAND32017
CobleskillNEW-YORK32023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.