BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Savannah Sparrow In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsGrassland birds

Savannah Sparrow in Central Hardwoods has declined: down 27% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-27%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Savannah Sparrow in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

Savannah Sparrow In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±74.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.08
20260.030.000.08
20270.030.000.08
20280.030.000.08
20290.030.000.08

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Savannah Sparrow in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MillerMISSOURI62019
BrownvilleILLINOIS32006
ScottsburgINDIANA32009
HustonvilleKENTUCKY31973
BirdsILLINOIS22009
YorkILLINOIS22002
BrazilINDIANA22024
CorydonINDIANA22001
GoshenKENTUCKY21995
RoyaltonILLINOIS12003
SpencerINDIANA12021
AzaliaINDIANA11988
CumbackINDIANA11994
Indian SpgsINDIANA12011
Clear SpringINDIANA12008
New PhilaINDIANA12003
VevayINDIANA12001
NewberryINDIANA12016
GeorgiaINDIANA12024
Cross PlainsINDIANA12008
LeveeKENTUCKY11978
MillionKENTUCKY11973
HodgenvilleKENTUCKY11998
EastviewKENTUCKY11976
DrakesboroKENTUCKY11978

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.