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Species · BCR 2 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Savannah Sparrow In BCR 2

All regionsBCR 2Grassland birds

Savannah Sparrow in BCR 2 has declined: down 34% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

-34%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Savannah Sparrow in BCR 2. See the full index history below.

Savannah Sparrow In BCR 2 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in BCR 2 is projected to rise about 58% by 2030 — from 18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 28 (95% range 5.2–52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+58%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.2–5295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in BCR 2 is projected to rise about 58% by 2030 — from 18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 28 (95% range 5.2–52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19832030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026295.652
2027295.552
2028295.452
2029295.352
2030285.252

Routes In BCR 2

Routes recording Savannah Sparrow in BCR 2.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
St. Mary'SALASKA552014
Cold Bay (Short)ALASKA381992
KodiakALASKA361984
NomeALASKA352023
Cold BayALASKA312025
Cape NomeALASKA312024
Goodnews BayALASKA272005
King SalmonALASKA252025
TellerALASKA242024
ChiniakALASKA202025
Togiak RiverALASKA202005
Dillingham (Short)ALASKA171984
Kodiak 2ALASKA152025
KotzebueALASKA142025
DillinghamALASKA72019
CouncilALASKA72024
Kotzebue (Short)ALASKA61994
Salmon LakeALASKA52024
Kanektok RivALASKA52005
Gweek RiverALASKA42001
Katmai N.P.ALASKA32025
TupuknukALASKA11995

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.