BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Savannah Sparrow In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaGrassland birds

Savannah Sparrow in Sierra Nevada has edged down: down 12% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-12%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Savannah Sparrow in Sierra Nevada. See the full index history below.

Savannah Sparrow In Sierra Nevada Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in Sierra Nevada is projected to rise about 55% by 2029 — from 0.37 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±274.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+55%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.57Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±274.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in Sierra Nevada is projected to rise about 55% by 2029 — from 0.37 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±274.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.570.001.4
20260.570.001.4
20270.570.001.4
20280.570.001.4
20290.570.001.4

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Savannah Sparrow in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GoumazCALIFORNIA82011
SattleyCALIFORNIA62024
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA22003
GeneseeCALIFORNIA22011
PaxtonCALIFORNIA22022
Little TruckeeCALIFORNIA22023
DardanelleCALIFORNIA12014
WoodfordsCALIFORNIA11981
ChilcootCALIFORNIA12024
Last ChanceCALIFORNIA12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.