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Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Savannah Sparrow In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestGrassland birds

Savannah Sparrow in Atlantic Northern Forest has declined: down 29% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-29%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Savannah Sparrow in Atlantic Northern Forest. See the full index history below.

Savannah Sparrow In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.7 (95% range 0.32–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.32–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.7 (95% range 0.32–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.80.403.2
20261.80.383.2
20271.80.363.2
20281.80.343.2
20291.70.323.2

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Savannah Sparrow in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WashburnMAINE562005
BoundaryMAINE272016
Ft FairfieldMAINE222005
LudlowMAINE201998
AshlandMAINE182008
GreensboroVERMONT162024
St DavidMAINE112005
Dixvil NotchNEW-HAMPSHIRE112017
DebloisMAINE102007
WatervilleVERMONT101980
HarmonyMAINE92024
Otisfield GrMAINE72014
CornvilleMAINE72024
Dixville Notch 2NEW-HAMPSHIRE72024
HighmarketNEW-YORK72024
BethelMAINE62019
ManchesterMAINE61995
HermonMAINE62019
CooperMAINE62021
TopsfieldMAINE61996
PittsfieldMASSACHUSETTS62016
FranconiaNEW-HAMPSHIRE62024
MiddlesexVERMONT62024
CummingtonMASSACHUSETTS52014
BentonMAINE41978

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.