BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Savannah Sparrow In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGrassland birds

Savannah Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has declined: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-50%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
83Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Savannah Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Savannah Sparrow In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 6.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 1.9–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–7.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 6.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 1.9–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.42.58.3
20265.22.48.1
20275.12.28.0
20285.02.17.8
20294.81.97.7

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Savannah Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OrleansNEW-YORK482024
MaysvilleOHIO312001
SheridanNEW-YORK222024
HopkintonNEW-YORK221990
HinesburgVERMONT221994
CastileNEW-YORK212024
E YoungstownNEW-YORK212023
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK212024
MacdougallNEW-YORK192024
RushvilleNEW-YORK192024
AkeleyPENNSYLVANIA181979
West BangorNEW-YORK161999
NashvilleNEW-YORK132018
RomulusNEW-YORK122000
GarrettsvileOHIO121991
WatertownNEW-YORK112012
BranchportNEW-YORK102024
ByronNEW-YORK102024
ArgyleNEW-YORK102024
OgdensburgNEW-YORK102024
NaplesNEW-YORK92024
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA92024
CayugaNEW-YORK82024
RandolphNEW-YORK82018
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK82024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.