BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Savannah Sparrow In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGrassland birds

Savannah Sparrow in Northern Rockies has surged: up 140% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+140%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
173Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Savannah Sparrow has surged in Northern Rockies: up 140% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Savannah Sparrow In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 24% by 2030 — from 6.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.6 (95% range 5.1–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.1–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 24% by 2030 — from 6.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.6 (95% range 5.1–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.44.99.8
20277.45.09.9
20287.55.010.0
20297.55.110
20307.65.110

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Savannah Sparrow in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pablo Res.MONTANA1042025
BeaverheadMONTANA892025
AugustaMONTANA752025
ChestnutMONTANA462025
RaynesfordMONTANA452025
St MaryMONTANA442008
Red RockMONTANA442025
Willow Creek 2MONTANA412025
ChewelahWASHINGTON372021
Hayden ValWYOMING351986
BoulderWYOMING322025
YellowstoneWYOMING292025
KalispellMONTANA272025
Church HillMONTANA252025
Twin BridgesMONTANA241976
Neponset ResUTAH232018
Mtn ViewWYOMING232024
Wolf CreekMONTANA212025
Freeman CreekMONTANA212016
Fort LoganMONTANA192025
BoulderMONTANA182025
SulaMONTANA172024
Hebgen LakeMONTANA162025
Big SandyWYOMING162025
Seedskadee 2WYOMING162024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.