BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Savannah Sparrow In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGrassland birds

Savannah Sparrow in Northern Rockies has surged: up 132% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+132%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
171Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Savannah Sparrow has surged in Northern Rockies: up 132% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Savannah Sparrow In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 7.6 (95% range 5.2–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.2–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 7.6 (95% range 5.2–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.44.99.9
20267.55.09.9
20277.55.010.0
20287.65.110
20297.65.210

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Savannah Sparrow in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BeaverheadMONTANA1252024
Pablo Res.MONTANA1132024
AugustaMONTANA602024
ChestnutMONTANA602024
RaynesfordMONTANA512024
Red RockMONTANA452024
St MaryMONTANA442008
BoulderWYOMING432024
Church HillMONTANA402024
ChewelahWASHINGTON372021
YellowstoneWYOMING362022
Hayden ValWYOMING351986
Willow Creek 2MONTANA322024
Clyde ParkMONTANA322024
PolsonMONTANA282024
St. Mary 2MONTANA282024
Twin BridgesMONTANA241976
Neponset ResUTAH232018
RiversideWYOMING232024
Mtn ViewWYOMING232024
Freeman CreekMONTANA212016
Fort LoganMONTANA212024
HarmonyWYOMING192023
Big SandyWYOMING182024
KalispellMONTANA172024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.