BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Sandhill Crane Population Trend in California

All statesWetland birds

Sandhill Crane in California has surged: up 167% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+167%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sandhill Crane Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sandhill Crane has surged in California: up 167% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Sandhill Crane Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Sandhill Crane in California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.79 (95% range 0.36–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±260.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.79Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.36–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±260.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sandhill Crane in California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.79 (95% range 0.36–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±260.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.760.331.2
20270.770.341.2
20280.780.341.2
20290.780.351.2
20300.790.361.2

Sandhill Crane Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Sandhill Crane in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Macdoel2620191978
Likely2320251971
Dorris1120191972
Sattley1020251972
Paxton1020252000
Cedarville1020251974
Hackamore620102000
Madeline620251997
Davis Creek620251972
Yreka420191975
Nubieber320181970
Crowder Flat320192002
Goumaz320111997
Clear Lk Res320181995
Chester219971997
Honey Lake220241972
Chilcoot220232023
Last Chance220172008
Ingalls220251974
Gazelle120211992
Eagle Lake120251971
Oroville120102010
Meadow Valley120252025
Little Truckee120231998
Genesee120232003

Sandhill Crane Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.