BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Sandhill Crane In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Wetland birds

Sandhill Crane in BCR 4 has risen sharply: up 72% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

+72%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sandhill Crane has risen sharply in BCR 4: up 72% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

Sandhill Crane In BCR 4 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sandhill Crane in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 23% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.32–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.32–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sandhill Crane in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 23% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.32–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.302.3
20271.30.312.3
20281.30.312.3
20291.30.322.3
20301.30.322.3

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Sandhill Crane in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ft. RichrdsnALASKA152022
Chena Hot SpALASKA111990
Anchor RiverALASKA102024
CircleALASKA82024
KalifonskyALASKA72025
L SalchaALASKA72015
McgrathALASKA72022
Kobuk River (Short)ALASKA71992
Galena (Short)ALASKA72025
NorthwayALASKA62023
Mud RiverALASKA62022
WillowALASKA52025
Burma RoadALASKA52025
SlanaALASKA42013
Bear CreekALASKA41991
Porcupine R.ALASKA42000
Kanuti LakeALASKA42023
Swan Lake RdALASKA32025
CohoeALASKA32022
KachemakALASKA32025
ColdfootALASKA32018
Koyukuk Riv.ALASKA32001
Murphy DomeALASKA32017
LivengoodALASKA22015
Nicholai SlALASKA22025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.