BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sandhill Crane In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Wetland birds

Sandhill Crane in BCR 4 has surged: up 125% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

+125%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sandhill Crane has surged in BCR 4: up 125% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

Sandhill Crane In BCR 4 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sandhill Crane in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 44% by 2029 — from 0.92 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.34–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+44%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.34–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sandhill Crane in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 44% by 2029 — from 0.92 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.34–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.322.3
20261.30.322.3
20271.30.332.3
20281.30.332.3
20291.30.342.3

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Sandhill Crane in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ft. RichrdsnALASKA152022
KachemakALASKA122023
Chena Hot SpALASKA111990
Anchor RiverALASKA102024
CircleALASKA82024
L SalchaALASKA72015
McgrathALASKA72022
Kobuk River (Short)ALASKA71992
NorthwayALASKA62023
Mud RiverALASKA62022
SlanaALASKA42013
Bear CreekALASKA41991
Swan Lake RdALASKA42022
PetersvilleALASKA42024
Porcupine R.ALASKA42000
Kanuti LakeALASKA42023
WillowALASKA32024
CohoeALASKA32022
Seven LakesALASKA32023
Burma RoadALASKA32024
ColdfootALASKA32018
Koyukuk Riv.ALASKA32001
Murphy DomeALASKA32017
LivengoodALASKA22015
Hatcher PassALASKA22014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.