BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Sage Thrasher In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesArid-land birds

Sage Thrasher in Badlands and Prairies has held roughly steady: up 4% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+4%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Sage Thrasher in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Sage Thrasher In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sage Thrasher in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 97% by 2030 — from 0.60 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-97%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±82.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sage Thrasher in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 97% by 2030 — from 0.60 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.080.000.74
20270.060.000.73
20280.050.000.72
20290.040.000.70
20300.020.000.69

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Sage Thrasher in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GlenrockWYOMING171977
HighlightWYOMING152007
NatronaWYOMING91992
SavagetonWYOMING72025
BucknumWYOMING72024
SchoonoverWYOMING62025
Teapot DomeWYOMING61989
ShawneeWYOMING62025
JordanMONTANA42017
ClarkelenWYOMING41978
Harland FlatWYOMING42025
KayceeWYOMING42025
LeroyMONTANA32025
Flatwillow 2MONTANA32021
Chuffey SpringMONTANA32025
SussexWYOMING32025
RoyMONTANA22017
BrusettMONTANA22023
FlatwillowMONTANA21992
IngomarMONTANA22024
Jordan SouthMONTANA22025
WyarnoWYOMING22025
UptonWYOMING22024
Thunder BasinWYOMING22025
ShawmutMONTANA12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.