BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sage Thrasher In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGeneralists

Sage Thrasher in Badlands and Prairies has declined: down 31% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-31%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Sage Thrasher in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Sage Thrasher In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sage Thrasher in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.50 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±77%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sage Thrasher in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.50 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.060.000.71
20260.040.000.70
20270.020.000.68
20280.010.000.67
20290.000.000.66

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Sage Thrasher in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GlenrockWYOMING171977
HighlightWYOMING152007
NatronaWYOMING91992
SavagetonWYOMING92019
BucknumWYOMING72024
WinnettMONTANA62022
Teapot DomeWYOMING61989
JordanMONTANA42017
ClarkelenWYOMING41978
Thunder BasinWYOMING42024
Flatwillow 2MONTANA32021
SchoonoverWYOMING32024
RavenWYOMING32024
ShawneeWYOMING32024
LeroyMONTANA22024
RoyMONTANA22017
BrusettMONTANA22023
FlatwillowMONTANA21992
IngomarMONTANA22024
Jordan SouthMONTANA22024
RoundupMONTANA22018
Custer 2MONTANA22024
RecluseWYOMING22024
UptonWYOMING22024
Harland FlatWYOMING22017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.