BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sage Thrasher In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaGeneralists

Sage Thrasher in Sierra Nevada has surged: up 164% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

+164%Since 1982
5Routes In Region
36Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Sage Thrasher has surged in Sierra Nevada: up 164% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sage Thrasher in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 52% by 2029 — from 0.58 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.00–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±159.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-52%Change by 2029
0.28Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.6195% range
±159.1%Backtest error
19742029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.270.000.61
20260.270.000.61
20270.270.000.61
20280.280.000.61
20290.280.000.61

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Sage Thrasher in Sierra Nevada.
SattleyCALIFORNIA72024
ChilcootCALIFORNIA42024
Last ChanceCALIFORNIA22014
DardanelleCALIFORNIA11996
CrestviewCALIFORNIA12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.