BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sage Thrasher In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaGeneralists

Sage Thrasher in Sierra Nevada has surged: up 164% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

+164%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sage Thrasher has surged in Sierra Nevada: up 164% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

Sage Thrasher In Sierra Nevada Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sage Thrasher in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 52% by 2029 — from 0.58 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.00–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±159.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-52%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.28Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±159.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sage Thrasher in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 52% by 2029 — from 0.58 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.00–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±159.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.270.000.61
20260.270.000.61
20270.270.000.61
20280.280.000.61
20290.280.000.61

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Sage Thrasher in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SattleyCALIFORNIA72024
ChilcootCALIFORNIA42024
Last ChanceCALIFORNIA22014
DardanelleCALIFORNIA11996
CrestviewCALIFORNIA12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.