BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sage Thrasher In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGeneralists

Sage Thrasher in Northern Rockies has surged: up 114% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+114%Since 1970
119Routes In Region
56Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Sage Thrasher has surged in Northern Rockies: up 114% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sage Thrasher in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 40% by 2029 — from 9.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-40%Change by 2029
5.7Projected 2029 index
0.00–1495% range
±18.7%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20256.10.0015
20266.00.0015
20275.90.0015
20285.80.0015
20295.70.0014

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Sage Thrasher in Northern Rockies.
Patrick DrawWYOMING921980
Patrick Draw 2WYOMING851983
MckinnonWYOMING811986
Black Rock 2WYOMING782024
Bear CreekWYOMING752024
BairoilWYOMING702024
RyegrassWYOMING622024
DanielWYOMING601988
DiamondvilleWYOMING581982
Carter 2WYOMING582024
Neponset ResUTAH552018
BaggsWYOMING552024
Seedskadee 2WYOMING552024
RelianceWYOMING512018
Browns ParkCOLORADO462024
Patrick Draw 6WYOMING452024
Saleratus CrUTAH412018
ShirleyWYOMING402024
Rawlins 2WYOMING402024
Mtn ViewWYOMING392024
MaybellCOLORADO372024
Great DivideCOLORADO372024
ErvayWYOMING332024
LamontWYOMING322024
Elk Horn 2WYOMING322024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.