BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Sage Thrasher In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesArid-land birds

Sage Thrasher in Northern Rockies has surged: up 115% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+115%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
121Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sage Thrasher has surged in Northern Rockies: up 115% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Sage Thrasher In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sage Thrasher in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 7.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sage Thrasher in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 7.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.10.0015
20276.00.0015
20285.90.0015
20295.80.0014
20305.70.0014

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Sage Thrasher in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Patrick DrawWYOMING921980
RyegrassWYOMING872025
Patrick Draw 2WYOMING851983
MckinnonWYOMING811986
RelianceWYOMING612025
DanielWYOMING601988
DiamondvilleWYOMING581982
Neponset ResUTAH552018
Seedskadee 2WYOMING552024
Bear CreekWYOMING512025
BairoilWYOMING492025
LamontWYOMING472025
Saleratus CrUTAH412018
MaybellCOLORADO402025
Browns ParkCOLORADO382025
ShirleyWYOMING382025
Big SandyWYOMING372025
Carter 2WYOMING352025
ErvayWYOMING322025
Elk Horn 2WYOMING322025
CarterWYOMING312016
Rawlins 2WYOMING312025
Black Rock 2WYOMING302025
Green RiverWYOMING291984
Flamin GorgeWYOMING292025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.