BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rufous-crowned Sparrow In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsGeneralists

Rufous-crowned Sparrow in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has surged: up 173% on the route-weighted index since 1991.

+173%Since 1991
8Routes In Region
27Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Rufous-crowned Sparrow has surged in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: up 173% on the route-weighted index since 1991.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rufous-crowned Sparrow in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to fall about 43% by 2028 — from 0.33 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.04–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-43%Change by 2028
0.19Projected 2028 index
0.04–0.3495% range
±66.3%Backtest error
19732028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20240.180.030.32
20250.180.030.33
20260.180.040.33
20270.190.040.34
20280.190.040.34

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Rufous-crowned Sparrow in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
WickenburgARIZONA92023
OatmanARIZONA22006
Joshua TreeCALIFORNIA21997
Alamo Res.ARIZONA12023
Palo VerdeARIZONA12004
Casa GrandeARIZONA12016
Cutter 2ARIZONA12018
OnyxCALIFORNIA11997

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.