BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rufous-crowned Sparrow In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGeneralists

Rufous-crowned Sparrow in Oaks and Prairies has collapsed: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-93%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rufous-crowned Sparrow has collapsed in Oaks and Prairies: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Rufous-crowned Sparrow In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rufous-crowned Sparrow in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±105.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±105.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rufous-crowned Sparrow in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±105.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.37
20260.000.000.37
20270.000.000.37
20280.000.000.37
20290.000.000.37

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Rufous-crowned Sparrow in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DuranTEXAS101999
LockhartTEXAS51971
Whit Mtn.TEXAS32018
HobsonTEXAS21985
OsageTEXAS21987
AlbanyTEXAS22015
OlneyTEXAS21984
BrucevilleTEXAS22009
ComancheTEXAS22024
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA11977
Glen RoseTEXAS12018
SeldenTEXAS12015
GrafordTEXAS12010
CottonwoodTEXAS12015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.