BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rufous-crowned Sparrow In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Rufous-crowned Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie has collapsed: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-82%Since 1970
14Routes In Region
54Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Rufous-crowned Sparrow has collapsed in Shortgrass Prairie: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rufous-crowned Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±255.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029
0.08Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.2295% range
±255.5%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.080.000.23
20260.080.000.23
20270.080.000.22
20280.080.000.22
20290.080.000.22

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Rufous-crowned Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie.
Wagon MoundNEW-MEXICO51974
GrenvilleNEW-MEXICO32024
VariaderoNEW-MEXICO32022
DalhartTEXAS32000
CaprockNEW-MEXICO21980
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO22021
NinaviewCOLORADO12023
FarleyNEW-MEXICO12017
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO11999
RosebudNEW-MEXICO12024
PostTEXAS12012
ChanningTEXAS11999
MiamiTEXAS12000
DoughertyTEXAS12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.