BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruffed Grouse In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestGeneralists

Ruffed Grouse in Northern Pacific Rainforest has collapsed: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-84%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruffed Grouse has collapsed in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ruffed Grouse in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±99.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±99.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruffed Grouse in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±99.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.10
20260.030.000.10
20270.030.000.10
20280.030.000.10
20290.030.000.10

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Ruffed Grouse in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TaholahWASHINGTON31994
HyderALASKA22000
Sams ValleyOREGON22019
LoraneOREGON22006
Cedar FallsWASHINGTON22014
Sheep MtnALASKA12004
Stikine RiverALASKA12024
Martins FyCALIFORNIA11989
OrleansCALIFORNIA12003
Offield MtnCALIFORNIA11997
Burnt RanchCALIFORNIA12016
Big FlatCALIFORNIA12012
Ship Mtn.CALIFORNIA12005
TimberOREGON11978
ShellrockOREGON11998
SaladoOREGON11972
Cool CampOREGON12002
WinberryOREGON11977
Days CreekOREGON12023
GarfieldOREGON11973
ElktonOREGON11980
ClearwaterOREGON12013
Elk LakeOREGON11975
Secret ValOREGON11979
Trask SummitOREGON12013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.